论文部分内容阅读
输电线路动态增容系统作为智能输电线路技术支撑系统的重要部分,能提高输电设备的利用效率,帮助运行人员更好地掌握当前线路的运行状态。为确保输电线路增容运行的可靠性和安全性,文中研究提出基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法对输电线路增容运行后的风险进行评估的方法。该方法主要利用各微气候监测参数后验分布的随机序列来建立风向、风速和环境温度等气候概率分布模型,结合线路负荷电流模型利用蒙特卡洛模拟来预测导线的温度分布,从而给出线路增容运行的风险指标。基于夏冬2季的典型监测数据,利用所提出的方法对动态增容系统给出的热容量的可靠性进行分析,结果表明线路运行风险控制在合适的范围以内,满足电网运行和调度工程的要求。
As an important part of the technical support system for smart transmission lines, the dynamic capacity expansion system for transmission lines can improve the utilization efficiency of transmission equipment and help operators better understand the current running status of transmission lines. In order to ensure the reliability and safety of transmission line capacity expansion operation, a method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method is proposed to evaluate the risk of transmission line capacity expansion. The method mainly uses the posterior distribution random sequence of each monitoring parameter of micro-climate to establish the climate probability distribution model such as wind direction, wind speed and ambient temperature. Combining the line load current model and Monte Carlo simulation to predict the temperature distribution of the wire, Risk indicators for capacity operation. Based on the typical monitoring data of summer and winter seasons, the proposed method is used to analyze the reliability of the heat capacity given by the dynamic capacity expansion system. The results show that the risk of line operation is controlled within the appropriate range to meet the requirements of grid operation and dispatch engineering .