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本文采用金融统计学的理论与方法,在对中国1984~2014年的贸易数据和经济增长数据进行实证分析基础上分析得出结论:我国出口对经济增长的影响大于进口对经济增长的影响;我国出口和进口对经济增长有正向驱动作用,进口在短期内促进出口额的增长,并且GDP与进出口额之间存在长期均衡关系。最后提出实行出口、进口并重的对外贸易策略;适度扩大进口,发挥进口的技术替代效应;政府应该加强对我国进出口贸易的管理,使得进出口贸易管理更加规范的建议,为促进我国的经济增长提供参考。
Based on the empirical analysis of trade data and economic growth data from 1984 to 2014 in China, this paper draws the conclusion that the impact of China’s exports on economic growth is greater than the impact of imports on economic growth. Our country Exports and imports have a positive effect on economic growth. Imports have contributed to the growth of exports in the short term, and there is a long-term equilibrium between GDP and imports and exports. At last, we put forward the foreign trade strategy of both export and import. We should expand the imports moderately and make full use of the substitution effect of technology. The government should strengthen the management of China’s import and export trade so as to make the management of import and export trade more standardized. In order to promote the economic growth of our country for reference.