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笔者以要素禀赋学说和出口波动一般均衡理论为基础,通过理论模型的推演发现:外需冲击、劳动要素价格与资本要素价格变动是影响出口波动的主要因素,在此基础上,运用36个国家24年的跨国面板数据考察劳动要素价格演变、资本要素价格演变对出口波动的影响。实证检验发现:对发展中国家而言,劳动和资本要素价格变动越大,出口波动越剧烈,其中劳动要素价格的影响最大;而对发达国家而言,劳动要素价格变动并不能对出口波动产生显著影响,资本要素价格变动则对出口波动产生正向影响,但影响不大,这表明与发展中国家相比,发达国家的出口波动已经基本脱离“要素驱动”时代。
Based on the theory of factor endowment and the general equilibrium theory of export volatility, the author finds out that the impact of external demand shock, the price of labor factor and the price of capital factor are the main factors that affect export fluctuations. On this basis, we use 36 countries Year cross-border panel data to examine the evolution of labor factor prices, the evolution of capital factor prices on export fluctuations. Empirical tests show that for developing countries, the greater the price of labor and capital, the more volatile the export, and the most important is the price of labor factor. For the developed countries, the change of the price of labor factor can not result in the export fluctuation Significantly, the changes in the price of capital elements have a positive effect on the export fluctuation but have little effect. This shows that compared with the developing countries, the export fluctuations in the developed countries have basically departed from the “factor-driven” era.