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目的探讨中国卫生总费用的预测方法,寻找数据之间的规律,更加科学的预测卫生费用值。方法利用协整回归的方法,建立GDP(Gross Domestic Product)与卫生总费用之间的协整回归关系,并进行短期预测。结果经协整回归预测可知,2013年、2014年中国卫生总费用分别为6002.4、7012.0亿元,卫生总费用继续保持快速增长的趋势,但2014年增长速度有所减缓。结论利用协整回归模型,预测1980-2012年中国卫生总费用,与其他学者预测值相比,误差较小,说明模型比较适合;预测2013年、2014年卫生总费用占GDP的比例分别为6.4%、6.9%,此数值预测误差较小。同时,长期预测精度则取决于GDP数据的可靠性,预测误差会因GDP数据准确性的下降而增大,此外,预测结果还会因政府卫生政策调整、个人支付卫生费用比例等因素缺乏预期性而导致其更加偏离真实值。因此,协整回归模型不太适合长期预测。
Objective To explore the methods for predicting the total cost of health in China, to find the laws between the data and to predict the cost of health more scientifically. Methods The cointegration regression method is used to establish the cointegration relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and total health expenditure and make short-term forecast. Results According to the co-ordination regression prediction, the total health expenditure in China in 2013 and 2014 was 600.247012 trillion yuan respectively. The total health expenditure maintained a rapid growth trend, but the growth rate slowed down in 2014. Conclusions The co-integration regression model is used to predict the total health expenditure in China from 1980 to 2012, which shows a smaller error than other scholars’ predictions. This indicates that the model is suitable. The total health expenditure in 2013 and 2014 is estimated to be 6.4 %, 6.9%, this numerical prediction error is smaller. At the same time, long-term forecast accuracy depends on the reliability of GDP data. Forecast errors will increase due to the decrease of GDP data accuracy. In addition, the forecast result will also be lack of expectation due to factors such as government health policy adjustment and individual payment of health costs Which led to its deviation from the true value. Therefore, the cointegration regression model is not suitable for long-term prediction.