论文部分内容阅读
由人工智能和决策分析团体开发的以知识为基础的置信网络,将有可能成为未来的一个重要预测工具。美国阿科石油公司和南加利福尼亚大学合作开发的ARCO 1模型,在预测金融活动中,是目前最先进的预测工具。以置信网络为基础的ARCO 1模型,是一个人工智能知识库,它模拟了所有被认为对原油市场有影响的变量。决策分析的启发技术,搜集了有关市场变量的信息,如变量的值域和相互关系。该系统用网络的蒙特卡洛分析来预测原油价格。对于已编制的不同的石油市场模型,该系统能很快地进行改进,在最近的波斯湾事件中,它的灵活性表现得很突出。
Knowledge-based trust networks developed by AI and decision analysis groups will likely be an important predictive tool for the future. The ARCO 1 model, developed in collaboration with Arco Oil and the University of Southern California, is the most advanced forecasting tool in forecasting financial activity. The ARCO 1 model, based on the belief network, is an artificial intelligence repository that models all variables that are believed to have an impact on the crude oil market. The inspired technology for decision analysis gathers information about market variables such as the range and interrelationships of variables. The system uses a network of Monte Carlo analysis to predict the price of crude oil. The system has been able to rapidly improve on the different oil market models that have been prepared, and its flexibility has been outstanding in the recent Persian Gulf event.