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本文采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验,利用新疆1952-2010年的国内生产总值(GDP)和碳排放总量的时间序列数据,对新疆碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过协整分析得出新疆碳排放量与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,碳排放每增加1%会引起GDP增长1.391%,GDP每增长1%会引起二氧化碳增长0.602%。通过格兰杰检验得出,新疆碳排放与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系:经济增长是碳排放量的格兰杰原因,而碳排放不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。
This paper uses cointegration analysis and Granger causality test to make an empirical study on the relationship between Xinjiang’s carbon emissions and economic growth by using the time-series data of gross domestic product (GDP) and total carbon emissions from 1952 to 2010 in Xinjiang. analysis. Through the co-integration analysis, it is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Xinjiang. Each 1% increase in carbon emissions will result in a 1.391% increase in GDP and 1% increase in GDP will cause a 0.602% increase in carbon dioxide. The Granger test shows that there is a one-way causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Xinjiang: economic growth is the Granger reason for carbon emissions, and carbon emissions are not the Granger causes of economic growth.