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技术发展的轨迹是新技术不断打破平衡取代旧技术的过程,同时也是渐变和突变的统一过程。技术由于受到科学发展的强烈影响,正在不断地由简单走向复杂,技术的成长期和成熟期也因此得以些许的延长。为了更好地寻找技术发展的至高点,本文从技术的初生、成长、成熟及衰退四个方面深入具体地论述了技术成长的周期性,以帮助企业在技术发展的不同时期作出其重要的战略决策。
The trajectory of technological development is the process of breaking new ground in replacing old technologies with new technologies. It is also the unifying process of gradual change and mutation. Due to the strong influence of science, technology is constantly changing from simplicity to complexity. As a result, the growth and maturity of technology have been slightly extended. In order to better find the highest point of technological development, this paper discusses the cyclicality of technological growth in depth from four aspects of technology’s birth, growth, maturity and recession to help enterprises make their important strategies in different periods of technological development decision making.