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在中国-中东欧国家领导人会晤以及“一带一路”的推动下,中国与中东欧国家的经贸合作机制日益成熟,双边贸易突飞猛进。本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型对1997~2014年中国机电产品出口中东欧国家的影响因素与潜力进行分析与测算。结果显示:双方经济规模、地理距离和汇率均对出口流量产生显著影响;技术性贸易壁垒和中东欧国家是否加入欧盟对出口流量有负影响,但并不显著;出口流量随着双方人均收入差距的扩大而增加。计算得出中国对中东欧16国的机电产品出口贸易还有巨大潜力,最后提出促进机电产品贸易的政策建议。
Driven by the leaders meeting between China and Central and Eastern European countries and the Belt and Road initiative, the economic and trade cooperation mechanism between China and Central and Eastern European countries is becoming more sophisticated and the bilateral trade has been advancing by leaps and bounds. Based on the expanded trade gravity model, this paper analyzes and estimates the influencing factors and potential of export of electromechanical products to Central and Eastern European countries from 1997 to 2014. The results show that both the economic scale, the geographical distance and the exchange rate of the two sides have a significant impact on the export traffic; technical barriers to trade and whether the Central and Eastern European countries join the EU have a negative impact on export flows, but not significant; export flows vary with the per capita income gap Expand and increase. Calculated that China has great potential for the export of electromechanical products to 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe, and finally put forward policy recommendations to promote trade in electromechanical products.