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目的 探索既能反映省级水平的碘缺乏病状况 ,又能发现地区级水平的非碘盐问题地区的新监测方案。方法 对甘肃省与福建省碘缺乏病综合干预试点研究的基线调查结果 ,运用MonteCarlo方法进行模拟抽样试验 ,分县级与地级两个层次进行。结果 在县级模拟中 ,一个县随机抽取 7至 8个村或 4至 5个乡 ,可较为准确地判定出全省的非碘盐问题县 ,真阳性率在 80 %左右 ,而对于非问题县的误判率较低 ,假阳性率在 2 0 %左右。在地级模拟中 ,每个地区选取 3个县 ,可对全省的非碘盐问题地区较为准确地判定 ,真阳性率达到 10 0 %。结论 建议全国碘缺乏病流行病学调查中碘盐的抽样方案覆盖各省所有地区 ,每个地区随机抽取 3个县 ,每个县随机抽取 4个乡 ,每乡随机抽取 2个村 ,每村随机采取 10户盐样 ,所获得资料经人口加权计算省级水平的碘盐覆盖率
Objective To explore a new monitoring program that can reflect the status of iodine deficiency disorders at the provincial level and find non-iodine salt problems at the regional level. Methods The baseline survey results of the Pilot Study on Integrated Management of Iodine Deficiency Disorders in Gansu Province and Fujian Province were carried out. The Monte Carlo method was used to carry out the simulated sampling experiment, which was divided into two levels: county level and prefecture level. Results In the county-level simulation, a county randomly selected 7 to 8 villages or 4 to 5 townships to determine the province’s non-iodized salt problem counties with a true positive rate of about 80%, while for non-problem The county’s false positive rate is low, the false positive rate is about 20%. In the prefecture-level simulation, three counties are selected in each area, which can accurately determine the non-iodized salt problem areas in the province with a true positive rate of 10%. Conclusions It is suggested that the sampling plan of iodized salt in the epidemiological survey of iodine deficiency disorders in our country cover all regions in each province. Three counties are randomly selected from each region, and four townships are randomly selected from each county. Two villages are randomly selected from each township. Ten salt samples were taken and the data obtained were weighted by population to calculate provincial level coverage of iodized salt