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输送易燃易爆介质的城市燃气管线,威胁着城市区域的公共安全,并可能由于其失效而造成人员的伤亡和财产的破坏损失。本文以燃气泄漏并造成喷射火后果作为个人风险分析的失效模式,讨论了失效频率、燃气释放速率、死亡概率等相关参数,并给出了相应的计算模型。此外,本文结合具体的工程应用分析,根据计算模型给出了死亡概率和个人风险随距离变化的关系,讨论了泄漏孔口尺寸、相对湿度变化对死亡概率的影响程度。结论表明此种计算模型能够很好地应用来计算燃气管线的个人风险,其计算结果给工程应用提供较好的辅助决策,有效减少人员的伤亡和财产损失。
Municipal gas lines that convey flammable and explosive media threaten the public safety of urban areas and may cause casualties and damage to property as a result of their failure. In this paper, the gas leak and the spray fire consequences are taken as the failure modes of personal risk analysis. Relevant parameters of failure frequency, gas release rate and death probability are discussed, and the corresponding calculation models are given. In addition, based on the analysis of engineering application, this paper gives the relationship between death probability and personal risk with distance according to the calculation model, and discusses the influence of leakage orifice size and relative humidity on death probability. The conclusion shows that this kind of calculation model can be applied to calculate the personal risk of gas pipeline well. The calculation result can provide better auxiliary decision for engineering application and reduce the casualties and property losses effectively.