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本文采用建立时间序列模型,研究我国人口老龄化和居民消费之间的关系。采用1990-2013年我国人均消费支出、老年人抚养比、老年人口增长率等指标的时间序列数据,进行平稳性检验,相关性分析等建立模型。然后进行多元线性回归分析,得出结论。结论表明:我国人口老龄化同居民消费呈反向变动关系,人口老龄化指数越高,居民消费水平反而低。据此得出相关的政策建议。
In this paper, the establishment of time series model to study the relationship between population aging and household consumption in China. Using the time series data of China’s per capita consumption expenditure, the dependency ratio of the elderly and the growth rate of the elderly population from 1990 to 2013, the model was established by using the stability test and the correlation analysis. Then multiple linear regression analysis concluded. The conclusion shows that the population aging of our country is inversely related to the consumption of residents. The higher the index of population aging, the lower the level of residents’ consumption. Accordingly, the relevant policy recommendations are drawn.