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运用零膨胀负二项回归模型,分析水上交通事故中人员死亡失踪数量的各影响因素的影响程度。通过Pearson相关分析得到与水上交通事故中人员死亡失踪人数密切相关的因素,建立ZINB回归模型得到各因素的参数估计值。运用弹性分析方法对不同影响因素的影响程度进行评估,根据影响程度对各影响因素进行排序。将该方法应用于长江海事局辖区范围内的水上交通事故人员死亡失踪分析,取得了理想效果。
The zero-inflation negative binomial regression model was used to analyze the influence of various influencing factors on the number of missing persons in water traffic accidents. Through Pearson correlation analysis, the factors that are closely related to the number of missing persons in water traffic accidents are obtained, and the ZINB regression model is established to get the parameter estimates of various factors. Use the elasticity analysis method to evaluate the influence degree of different influence factors, and sort each influence factor according to the impact degree. This method has been applied to the death of persons involved in maritime traffic accidents within the jurisdiction of the Yangtze River Maritime Administration area and has achieved the desired results.