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最近一段时间,关于中国官方经济增长数据的质疑持续升温。二季度经济数据显示经济同比企稳,环比转好。但是,海外投资者对于这一判断普遍存疑。有投资者认为中国经济的实际增长率在上半年已经跌至5%以下。其佐证大致有两条。一是国内一些主要行业的数据,如用电量、货运量、工业增加值,其下滑的幅度超出整体经济增长速度。二是二季度全球大宗商品价格下跌,反映中国需求的疲软。根据以往中国经济增速与大宗商品需求之间的关系,中
In recent days, the number of doubts about China’s official economic growth has been on the rise. Economic data in the second quarter showed that the economy stabilized on a year-on-year basis and the ratio was improving on a quarterly basis. However, overseas investors generally doubt this judgment. Some investors think that the real growth rate of China’s economy has dropped below 5% in the first half of the year. The evidence is roughly two. First, data from some major domestic industries, such as electricity consumption, freight traffic and industrial added value, have fallen more than the overall economic growth rate. Second, the global commodity prices in the second quarter fell, reflecting the weak demand in China. According to the past, China’s economic growth and the relationship between commodity demand, in