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从1990年代初开始,日本经济增长缓慢,进入衰退。诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗.克鲁格曼认为日本失去的十年是流动性陷阱的典范。但我们的实证分析表明日本经济停滞的原因在于其垂直的IS曲线,而非平坦的LM曲线,因此,日本经济面临的是结构性问题,而非暂时的低迷。日本经济的结构性问题主要来自人口老龄化、中央政府对地方政府转移支付的分配,以及银行受巴塞尔协议资本要求所限不愿为创业企业和中小企业提供贷款。包括中国在内的不少国家正面临着类似问题,特别是人口老龄化,因而非常关心日本的长期衰退问题。本文分析了日本陷入长期衰退的原因,并为重振经济提出建议。
Since the early 1990’s, Japan’s economy grew slowly and entered a recession. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman thinks the decade lost by Japan is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that the reason for Japan’s economic stagnation lies in its vertical IS curve, rather than the flat LM curve. Therefore, the Japanese economy is facing a structural problem rather than a temporary downturn. The structural problems in Japan’s economy are mainly caused by an aging population, the distribution of transfer payments by the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of banks to lend to start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises under the capital requirements of the Basel Accords. Many countries, including China, are facing similar problems, especially the aging population. They are therefore very much concerned about Japan’s long-term recession. This article analyzes Japan’s causes for its long-term recession and makes recommendations for revitalizing the economy.