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华北未来 50—100年强震潜在震源区的判别可归结为地震活动高潮幕强震发生地点的预测。七级以上强震的发生与块体边界强闭锁区的破裂相联系。分析表明:(1)一个地震活动期有相应的活动块体,强震只发生在其边界地带。(2)块体边界长期地震活动的空段可以看作是强闭锁区的形成标志,它可能是高潮幕强震的长期前兆。根据一个活动期前期的地震活动图象有可能确定活动块体的边界位置,从而为预测未来强震发生地点和排除某些地区强震发生的可能性提供途径。
The discrimination of the potential source regions of strong earthquakes in the future 50-100 years in North China can be attributed to the prediction of the location of strong earthquakes in seismic activity. The occurrence of strong earthquakes above Grade 7 is related to the rupture of the strong locked area of the block boundary. The analysis shows that: (1) There is a corresponding active block in a seismic activity period, and strong earthquakes occur only in the boundary area. (2) The empty segment of the long-term seismic activity on the boundary of the block can be regarded as the formation sign of the strong locked region, which may be a long-term precursor of the strong earthquake in the climatic face. It is possible to determine the boundary position of an active block on the basis of a seismic image of a previous period of activity, thus providing a way to predict the location of future strong earthquakes and eliminate the possibility of strong earthquakes in some areas.