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以武汉市区为例,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法与R/S分析法研究了1951~2009年月降水序列、年降水序列特征及趋势检验,并预测了未来降水量。结果表明,月降水序列中1、2、7、11月呈上升趋势,仅1、3月变化趋势显著;年降水序列上升趋势不明显,降水时间序列具有分形特征和长程相关性,可为降水中长期预测和水资源合理利用提供参考。
Taking Wuhan city as an example, the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method and R / S analysis method were used to study the monthly precipitation series, annual precipitation series and trend tests from 1951 to 2009, and predict the future precipitation. The results showed that the monthly precipitation series showed an upward trend in January, February, July and November, with only a significant trend in January and March; the upward trend of annual precipitation series was not obvious, and the precipitation time series had fractal characteristics and long-range correlation, Medium and long-term prediction and rational utilization of water resources.