三季度经济活动走弱我们估计即将公布的9月及三季度宏观数据将显示,房地产去库存持续、工业活动疲弱、股票市场交易萎缩和出口走弱可能拖累三季度GDP同比增速下滑至6.6%。尽管9月份投资和出口同比增速可能较8月份略有改善,但预计工业生产同比增速将继续回落,对应PPI仍将大幅通缩。信贷同比增速可能会继续回升,但其支撑作用尚未传导到实体经济。 Weaker economic activity in Q3 We expect the forthcoming September and Q3 macro data to show that real estate de-stocking, weak industrial activity, declining stock market transactions and weaker exports may drag the Y3Q GDP growth rate down to 6.6% . Although the year-on-year growth of investment and exports in September may be slightly better than that of August, the year-on-year growth of industrial production is expected to continue to fall and the corresponding PPI will still be deflationary. YoY growth of credit may continue to rise, but its supporting role has not been transmitted to the real economy.