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探讨中国旅游经济增长能否有效缩小城乡收入差距有助于全面地认识旅游发展的社会经济价值,发挥旅游经济的正向作用。本文使用人口加权变异系数测度了1999-2013年中国旅游经济增长以及城乡收入差距的变异程度,并在此基础上构建了E-G两步协整模型、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验模型探讨了中国旅游经济增长与城乡收入差距变异程度之间的关系。结果显示:旅游经济增长在各地区都呈现整体收敛趋势,城乡收入差距也整体呈现缩小趋势;全国及东、中、西部的旅游经济增长与城乡收入差距的变异程度之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,中国旅游经济增长的空间变异每增加1%,城乡收入差距的空间变异就增加0.516 9%,说明旅游经济增长的空间收敛对城乡收入差距的空间收敛有影响;误差修正模型结果显示短期变动关系中,中国旅游经济增长的空间变异每呈现1%的增长,城乡收入差距的空间变异就会增加0.631 5%,经济发展越强的地区其长期均衡关系对短期波动的调整力度越小;旅游经济增长空间变异与城乡收入差距空间变异之间存在单向因果关系,据此认为旅游经济增长能够缩小城乡收入差距。
To explore whether China’s tourism economic growth can effectively reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas helps to comprehensively understand the socio-economic value of tourism development and give play to the positive role of tourism economy. In this paper, we use the population weighted coefficient of variation to measure the degree of variation of tourism economic growth and urban-rural income disparity in China from 1999 to 2013. Based on this, we construct a two-step EG co-integration model, error correction model and Granger causality test model The Relationship between China ’s Tourism Economic Growth and the Variance Degree of Income Gap between Urban and Rural Areas. The results show that the growth of tourism economy in all regions shows the trend of overall convergence and the income gap between urban and rural areas as a whole shows a decreasing trend. There is a long-term and balanced cointegration between tourism economic growth in the whole country and in the variation degree of urban and rural income disparity For each 1% increase in the spatial variability of China’s tourism economic growth, the spatial variability of urban-rural income disparity increased by 0.516 9%, indicating that spatial convergence of tourism economic growth has an impact on the spatial convergence of urban-rural income disparity. The error correction model shows that short-term changes In the relations, spatial variability of China’s tourism economic growth shows an increase of 1% each time, and the spatial variability of urban-rural income disparity will increase by 0.631 5%. In the regions with stronger economic growth, the adjustment of short-term fluctuations in long-term equilibrium will be less; There is a one-way causal relationship between the spatial variation of economic growth and the spatial variability of urban-rural income gap. Therefore, we can conclude that tourism economic growth can narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.