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目的定量研究哈尔滨市日均气温对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的急性影响,为人群心脑血管疾病的预防提供依据。方法收集2013—2014年哈尔滨市心脑血管疾病死亡资料及气象、大气污染物资料,采用广义相加模型研究哈尔滨市四季日均气温与居民心脑血管疾病日死亡率的关系,同时控制时间趋势、星期几效应、大气污染物等混杂因素的影响。结果 2013—2014年哈尔滨市日均气温为4.77℃,日均心脑血管死亡人数为97例。31岁及以上的心血管疾病人群易受气温影响,女性发生心脑血管疾病死亡的风险高于男性。全年平均气温滞后1、5 d时,气温升高1℃人群心脑血管疾病死亡人数分别上升0.14%和0.18%;春季平均气温滞后3~6 d时,每升高1℃人群心脑血管疾病死亡人数上升0.21%~0.26%;夏、秋季平均气温每升高1°C时,当日人群心脑血管疾病死亡人数上升1.22%和0.27%,上述均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论哈尔滨市日均气温与心脑血管疾病日死亡数有关,且存在滞后效应。应建立适合该市的心脑血管疾病人群气象预警模型,提高高危人群在春夏季的疾病防控意识,降低由气温诱发的心脑血管疾病死亡风险。
Objective To quantitatively study the acute effects of daily average air temperature on the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in residents in Harbin and provide the basis for the prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the population. Methods The data of death from cardiovascular diseases and meteorological and atmospheric pollutants in Harbin during 2013-2014 were collected. The generalized additive model was used to study the relationship between the average daily temperature of four seasons in Harbin and the daily mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in residents. Meanwhile, , The day of the week effects, air pollutants and other confounding factors. Results The average daily temperature of Harbin was 4.77 ℃ between 2013 and 2014, and the daily average number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths was 97. People with cardiovascular disease 31 years and older are more susceptible to temperature and women have a higher risk of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases than men. When the average annual temperature lag was 1,5 days, the death rate of cardiovascular disease increased by 0.14% and 0.18% respectively when the temperature was increased by 1 ℃. When the average temperature lagged by 3 ~ 6 days in spring, the death rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular The number of deaths from diseases increased by 0.21% -0.26%. For each 1 ° C increase in summer and autumn, the death rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the population increased by 1.22% and 0.27%, respectively, all of which were statistically significant (P <0.05). Conclusion The average daily temperature in Harbin is related to the number of deaths in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and there is a lagging effect. A weather warning model should be established for the population with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the city to raise awareness of disease prevention and control in high-risk groups in spring and summer and reduce the risk of death from temperature-induced cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.