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本文通过全球投入产出模型研究发现:若全球生产网络体系正常运转,垂直关联并没有放大外生最终需求冲击对全球贸易下滑的影响,反而在一定程度上缓解了全球贸易下滑。中间产品贸易的下降幅度远低于最终需求产品贸易,但因权重为2/3,其贡献率较大(49%以上);非垂直专业化值与垂直专业化值的下降幅度基本一致,因后者权重较小,其对全球贸易的贡献率低于28%。进一步比较真实统计数据计算结果表明:一旦供给侧遭到外生冲击,全球生产网络体系遭到破坏,垂直关联中断,将导致中间产品贸易和垂直专业化贸易大幅下降,进而造成全球贸易大幅下滑。
Through the study of global input-output model, this paper finds that if the global production network system is in normal operation, the vertical correlation does not amplify the impact of the external demand impact on the global trade decline, but to a certain extent, ease the global trade decline. The trade in intermediate products dropped much less than the trade in final demand products, but its contribution rate was larger (49% or above) due to the 2/3 weighting. The non-vertical specialization value was basically the same as that of the vertical specialization because The latter, with less weight, contribute less than 28% to global trade. Further comparisons of real statistics show that once the supply side is exogenously hit, the global production network system is destroyed and the vertical linkages are interrupted. As a result, the trade in intermediate products and vertical specialized trade will drop sharply, resulting in a sharp decline in global trade.