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通过对河南省信阳市农业气象试验站1981~2006年冬小麦生育状况观测资料、2002~2007年地面气象观测数据及信阳市植保植检站小麦条锈病病情资料的统计分析,论述了小麦条锈病病原菌形态与生理生化特征、病害循环与气象环境的关系,揭示了条锈病菌侵染过程与气象环境的关系,分析了条锈病的发病条件。对稻茬麦条锈病发生面积、起始时间、持续时间、危害程度相关显著的气象因子进行独立性检验,筛选出相互独立的预报因子,采用逐步回归方法建立条锈病发生面积、起始时间、持续时间、危害程度等级的预报方程,建立了预报时效分别为70、40、10d的长、中、短期小麦条锈病发生发展气象预报模型,客观、实时地发布主要病虫害气象预报产品,并提出了小麦条锈病综合防治策略。
Through the statistical analysis of the observation data of the winter wheat growth status from 1981 to 2006, the meteorological observation data from 2002 to 2007 and the stripe rust disease information of the Xinyang Plant Protection and Inspection Station in Xinyang City, Henan Province, this paper discussed the pathogen of wheat stripe rust Morphology and physiological and biochemical characteristics of the disease cycle and the relationship between meteorological environment, revealing the relationship between the infection process of the stripe rust and weather conditions, analysis of the incidence of stripe rust disease. The independence of the meteorological factors related to the area, the start time, the duration and the degree of harm of the stripe rust occurred on the rice stubble was tested and the independent predictors were screened out. The occurrence area, onset time, Duration and degree of hazard, a weather forecasting model was established for long, medium and short-term wheat stripe rust occurrence and development with the 70, 40 and 10d forecasting time respectively. The weather forecasting products for main pests and diseases were released objectively and in real time, Wheat Stripe Rust Comprehensive Prevention Strategy.