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中止决策能力是影响风险投资公司长期绩效的重要指标之一,然而现有中止决策方法忽视了风险项目发展过程中信息对项目价值的影响,从而影响了中止决策时机。针对该问题,本文首先从贝叶斯后验估计的角度提出了风险投资家后验概率的信号学习过程;然后运用动态规划方法,在确定对风险项目最优投资水平的基础上,给出了基于风险项目价值的最优中止时机模型;最后对最优中止时机模型进行了算例分析。本文提出的最优中止模型考虑了风险项目发展过程中新信息释放对中止时机的影响,解决了分阶段投资情形下的最优中止决策问题,为风险投资家及时做出中止决策提供决策依据。同时,该模型还可用来分析风险投资家对风险项目的最优投资水平问题,为其做出最优决策提供参考。此外,模型的分析也为风险项目创始人通常发生的逆向选择行为提供了合理的解释。
The ability to suspend decision-making is one of the important indicators that affect the long-term performance of venture capital firms. However, the existing discontinuing decision-making method ignores the impact of information on project value in the development of risky projects, thus affecting the timing of the suspension of the decision-making. To solve this problem, this paper first proposes the signal learning process of the posterior probability of venture capitalists from the perspective of Bayesian posterior estimation. Then, based on the dynamic programming method, on the basis of determining the optimal investment level for risky projects, The optimal termination model based on the value of the risk project; Finally, the optimal termination model was analyzed. The optimal abort model proposed in this paper considers the impact of new information release on the timing of the suspension in the development of the risk project and solves the optimal abort decision problem in the case of phased investment so as to provide the decision basis for the venture capitalist to make the abort decision in time. At the same time, the model can also be used to analyze the optimal investment level of venture capitalists for risky projects and provide reference for their optimal decision-making. In addition, the analysis of the model provides a reasonable explanation for the adverse selection behavior that usually happens to the founder of a risk project.