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2004年中国名义GDP水平上调2800亿美元,相当于17%。这次调整极可能使中国成为世界第四大经济体。我们认为该调整虽然对现实经济没有影响,但对中国类股票是根本性利好,原因有四:1、有改善中国类股票由于高资产风险而被深度打折的潜力;2、中国在全球经济中重要性的提升带来资金追捧中国类股票的可能;3、波动更小的经济周期将在更长一段时间内为日用品供应商、房地产开发商和服务行业(包括银行)带来利好;4、事件本身的积极性将带来短期的交易型机会。
China’s nominal GDP in 2004 was raised 280 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 17%. This adjustment will most likely make China the fourth largest economy in the world. Although we believe this adjustment has no effect on the real economy, it is fundamentally good for Chinese stocks for four reasons: 1. There is potential to improve the depth of discounting of Chinese stocks due to high asset risk; 2. In the global economy, Importance of raising the possibility of funds chasing the Chinese stocks; 3, smaller fluctuations in the business cycle for a longer period of time for the daily necessities suppliers, real estate developers and service industries (including banks) to bring good news; 4, The enthusiasm of the event itself will bring short-term trading opportunities.