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本文对2001年1月至2014年12月的宏观经济月度数据构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,分析了货币政策对房地产价格、房地产价格对实体经济的传导过程。研究发现,货币政策对房地产价格的反应强度大于房地产价格对实体经济的反应强度。其中,房地产价格与利率成同向波动、与货币供应量呈反向波动,利率对房地产价格的影响比较迅速,货币供给量的反应存在一定时滞,但总体影响略大于利率。房地产价格的变动导致了投资和消费的反向波动,反映出居民的挤出效应大于财富效应,房地产的投资存在一定的风险。
This paper constructs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for monthly macroeconomic data from January 2001 to December 2014 and analyzes the transmission of real estate prices and real estate prices to real economy by monetary policy. The study found that the strength of monetary policy response to real estate prices is greater than the real estate price response to the real economy. Among them, the real estate prices and interest rates into the same fluctuations, and the money supply fluctuated in reverse, the impact of interest rates on real estate prices more rapidly, there is a certain delay in the reaction of the money supply, but the overall impact slightly higher than the interest rate. Changes in real estate prices led to the reverse fluctuations in investment and consumption, reflecting residents out of the effect of wealth greater than the wealth effect, real estate investment there is a certain risk.