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基于中国30个省(市、区)的面板数据,运用门限回归模型就城镇化对贫困率的非线性影响进行了考察。结果显示:城镇化水平的提升有助于居民贫困率的降低,但是这一减贫效应具有明显的双门限特征;当城镇化率小于55.7%时,其减贫作用十分显著;当城镇化率在55.7%-68%时,其减贫作用开始放缓;当城镇化率超过68%时,其减贫作用不再显著。这一结果说明,当前城镇化进程同居民减贫之间存在着一定程度的非良性互动。此外,在城镇化进程中,金融发展和固定资产投资都在一定程度上有利于减贫,且金融发展程度的减贫作用要大于固定资产投资的减贫作用。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (cities and districts) in China, the threshold regression model was used to investigate the non-linear impact of urbanization on poverty rates. The results show that the improvement of urbanization level contributes to the reduction of residents’ poverty rate, but this reduction effect has obvious double-threshold characteristics. When the urbanization rate is less than 55.7%, the poverty reduction effect is significant. When the urbanization rate At 55.7% -68%, their poverty reduction began to slow down. When the urbanization rate exceeded 68%, their poverty reduction effect was no longer significant. This result shows that there is a certain degree of unhealthy interaction between the current process of urbanization and the reduction of poverty among residents. In addition, in the process of urbanization, both financial development and investment in fixed assets are conducive to poverty reduction to a certain extent, and the role of poverty reduction in financial development is greater than that of fixed-asset investment.