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工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化“五化”是社会现代化战略的重要支撑。“五化”协调定量评价是近年来一个研究热点。本文通过梳理和总结国内关于“五化”协调发展定量研究发现:1“五化”协调发展的内涵解读不一,评价时往往选择单指标,与综合指标差异很大。2权重计算以熵权法为主,层次分析法等主观评价方法较少,主客观评价结合更少。3协调水平的研究方法主要以耦合度、耦合协调度为主,其次为关系拟合与趋势预测法、DEA动态效率+HR模型、同步度模型等,并出现了系统性研究方法以及多种方法的交叉,研究方法的层次不断提高。4空间分析方法以空间分类与探索性空间数据分析为主,空间重心转移轨迹、空间格局的动态演进、空间趋势分析等研究方法逐渐出现。5时空分异的机理分析主要以影响因子解读与多元线性回归模型为主,空间滞后模型(SLM)、空间误差模型(SEM)、地理加权回归模型(GWR)等考虑空间因素的回归模型开始出现。但“化”的过程性、阶段性分析不足,“化”与“化”协调发展的转折点及转型机制分析不足。根据研究进展的评析,从研究范式、指标选择与权重计算、研究方法、空间分析技术、时空分异的机理解释等方面进行了反思,提出了加强“五化”协调发展的内在机理与评价维度分析、加强指标体系构建和权重设置的合理性研究、采用多元的“五化”协调度评价方法、加强空间分析技术的综合应用、促进定量解释与定性解释的结合等建议。
Industrialization, Urbanization, Agricultural Modernization, Informationization, and Greenization “Five Dynasties” is an important support for the strategy of social modernization. “Five of ” Coordination quantitative evaluation is a research hot spot in recent years. In this paper, we sort out and summarize the quantitative research on the coordinated development of “Five ” China ’s development: 1 “Five ” interpret the connotation of the coordinated development is different, often choose a single indicator evaluation, 2 Weights calculation is mainly based on entropy method, subjective evaluation method such as AHP is less, subjective and objective evaluation combined with less. The main research methods of coordination level are coupling degree and coupling coordination degree, followed by relationship fitting and trend forecasting method, DEA dynamic efficiency + HR model, synchronization degree model, etc., and systematic research methods and various methods The intersection of research methods and levels of continuous improvement. Spatial analysis methods mainly focus on spatial classification and exploratory spatial data analysis, and research methods such as the trajectories of spatial centers of gravity, the dynamic evolution of spatial patterns and spatial trend analysis gradually emerge. The analysis of the mechanism of temporal and spatial differentiation mainly takes the interpretation of influencing factors and multivariate linear regression model as the starting point, and the regression model considering space factors such as space lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM) and geo-weighted regression model (GWR) . However, there is not enough analysis on the turning point and the transition mechanism of coordinated development of “化” and “化” from the process of “化” and the analysis of stage analysis. Based on the analysis of the research progress, this paper reflects on the research paradigm, index selection and weight calculation, research methods, spatial analysis techniques and the explanation of the spatiotemporal differentiation mechanism, and puts forward the internal mechanism of strengthening the coordinated development of “Five” The evaluation dimension analysis is to strengthen the research on the rationality of index system construction and weight setting, adopt the multiple evaluation methods of “five levels”, strengthen the comprehensive application of spatial analysis technology, and promote the combination of quantitative interpretation and qualitative interpretation.