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猪肉是居民餐桌上不可或缺的肉类之一,合理预测猪肉物流需求至关重要。笔者应用MLP神经网络模型,建立了一个“经济影响因素-猪肉物流需求”预测模型。为了证明模型的预测效果,应用2010—2015年猪肉相关经济数据进行了验证。结果表明:模型的预测准确度达到了97%,并利用该模型预测了2016年的猪肉物流需求量。建议从加强猪肉市场信息化建设、发展电子商务交易模式、完善猪肉物流市场、加强猪肉生产者和第三方物流合作组织建设等方面采取措施保障猪肉市场健康稳定运行。
Pork is one of the indispensable meat on the table of residents, and it is very important to reasonably predict the demand of pork. The author uses MLP neural network model to establish a “economic impact factors - pork logistics demand” prediction model. In order to prove the prediction effect of the model, the pork-related economic data from 2010 to 2015 were validated. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model reaches 97% and the model is used to predict the demand of pork logistics in 2016. Proposed to take measures to ensure the healthy and stable operation of the pork market from the aspects of strengthening the information construction of the pork market, developing the e-commerce transaction mode, improving the pork logistics market, strengthening the construction of pork producers and third-party logistics cooperation organizations.