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本文根据1978～2009年我国历年银行信贷量、居民消费价格指数和货币供应量的有关数据,运用协整理论,从短期和长期两方面对改革开放以来我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量之间的动态关系进行实证研究,结果表明,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。从总体上说,货币供应量、银行信贷的变化对物价均有明显的正效应,且货币供应量的变化较银行信贷对物价有更大的影响。从短期看,银行信贷的变化较之货币供应的变化对物价又有更快的更为明显的效果,具有更好的时效性。因此,在制定政策稳定物价、抑制和缓解通货膨胀时,应从总体上着眼于货币供应量的调控,同时考虑到时效性,也要关注银行信贷的短期影响,将二者有机结合起来以达到更好的宏观调控效果。
Based on the data of bank credit, consumer price index and money supply from 1978 to 2009 in our country, using the cointegration theory, this paper analyzes the credit scale, price and money supply in our country from the short and long term The dynamic relationship between the empirical study, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between the three. Generally speaking, the changes in money supply and bank credit have obvious positive effects on prices, and the changes in money supply have a greater impact on price than bank credit. In the short run, the changes of bank credit have a more obvious effect on prices faster than the change of money supply, which has better timeliness. Therefore, when formulating policies to stabilize prices, curb and ease inflation, we should focus on the regulation of the money supply as a whole, taking into account the timeliness as well as the short-term impact of bank credit, and combine the two in order to achieve more Good macro-control effect.