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本文以2011-2015沪深股市非金融类公司作为样本,以实证研究为主要的分析方法,从政策维度、时间维度和综合维度对半强制分红政策给有直接再融资需求的上市公司、高成长性且每股自由现金流低的上市公司、高行业竞争性且每股自由现金流低的上市公司的价值带来的影响深入研究。本文建立了双重差分模型对研究结果进行估计,通过模型的测度发现,在以净资产收益率作为公司价值衡量指标时,半强制分红政策在短期内降低了有直接再融资需求的上市公司价值,长期来看该政策对受其影响的上市公司价值和股利支付水平的影响有限,并没有达到提高现金分红,保护中小投资者利益的初衷。
Based on the empirical research, the paper takes the non-financial companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets for the period of 2011-2015 as samples, and analyzes the semi-mandatory dividend policy to listed companies with direct refinancing demand from the policy dimension, time dimension and comprehensive dimension, And the impact of the value of listed companies with low free cash flow per share and high industry competitiveness with low free cash flow per share is deeply studied. This paper establishes a double-difference model to estimate the research results. The model tests show that semi-mandatory dividend policy reduces the value of listed companies with direct refinancing needs in the short run when ROE is used as a measure of corporate value. In the long run, this policy will have a limited impact on the value of listed companies and the level of dividend payments affected by the policy, and have not met the original intention of raising cash dividends and protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors.