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由于供应网络的复杂动态性,诸多风险因素之间相互作用,组成一个复杂动态系统。在此复杂动态系统下进行风险管理,给风险管理策略的选择和实施带来很大的挑战,存在反直觉的决策。在考虑反馈机制的基础上,使用系统动力学建模的方法,通过计算机仿真技术提出一种解决该问题的有效方法。该方法得出的实施策略能避免反直觉情况下的错误选择。
Due to the complexity of the supply network, many risk factors interact to form a complex dynamic system. Risk management under this complex dynamic system poses a great challenge to the selection and implementation of risk management strategies. There are counter-intuitive decisions. Based on the feedback mechanism, an effective method to solve the problem is proposed by using the method of system dynamics modeling through computer simulation technology. The implementation strategy of this method can avoid the wrong choice under anti-intuition.