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政府设定的目标具有战略意义,但是政府为什么会调整目标水平?本文构建了一个理论框架,从绩效差距的角度解释政府目标调整的决策、方向和幅度。利用2000~2012年中国省级经济增长率的面板数据,实证分析显示,历史和社会绩效差距是影响政府目标调整的关键变量。正向和负向的绩效差距对目标调整产生方向相反的影响,其中负向绩效差距的影响明显强于正向绩效差距。与此同时,两种绩效差距的方向一致程度对上述关系产生调节效应。上述结果揭示了政府设置和调整目标的行为逻辑,为优化政府目标管理提供了理论线索和经验依据。
The goal set by the government is of strategic significance, but why does the government adjust the target level? This paper constructs a theoretical framework to explain the policy-making, direction and magnitude of government goal adjustment from the perspective of the performance gap. Using the panel data of the provincial economic growth rate in China from 2000 to 2012, empirical analysis shows that the gap between history and social performance is the key variable affecting the government’s target adjustment. The positive and negative performance gaps have the opposite effect on the target adjustment, and the impact of the negative performance gap is obviously stronger than the positive performance gap. At the same time, the degree of directionality of the two performance gaps has a regulatory effect on the above relationship. The above results reveal the behavioral logic of the government in setting and adjusting goals, which provides theoretical clues and empirical evidence for the optimization of government goal management.