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在七七事变的起因问题上 ,中日学者关于事变的必然性与“偶发性”的争论最为尖锐 ,而日本在天津的中国驻屯军在事变以前有无侵占华北的计划 ,又是其中的一个重要的实证性的论据。 1 937年 7月 8日凌晨 3时由中国驻屯军主任参谋起草的一份《宣传计划》(假定 )被日本学者发表后 ,曾为我国学者所征引 ,但这份文书因其本身的局限性 ,难以证明日军在七七事变前夕阴谋侵占华北的有计划性。本文对于近年来被披露的中国驻屯军司令部 1 936年 9月 1 5日制订的《1 936年度华北占领地区统治计划书》 ,进行了必要的考证 ;并结合日本华北政策的演变 ,对其产生的历史背景和其历史价值进行了论述 ;还将它与关东军九一八事变前夕制订的《满蒙占领地统治方案》进行了比较。根据中国驻屯军的这份计划书 ,笔者进一步论证了日军发动卢沟桥事变的必然性问题。
On the causes of the Seventy-Seven Incident, the arguments between Chinese and Japanese scholars about the inevitability and the “sporadic nature” of incidents are the most acute. The plan of the Chinese Tunjun garrison in Tianjin before invading the invasion of the North China incident is another important one Empirical evidence. 1 An “Propaganda Plan” (Assumption) drafted by the chief of staff of the Chinese Tun Sen Army at 3:00 am on July 8, 1937 was cited by Chinese scholars after it was published by Japanese scholars. However, due to its own limitations , It is difficult to prove that the Japanese planned the invasion and occupation of North China on the eve of the Seventy-Seven Incident. This article carries out the necessary research on the “1936 Plan for the Control of the Occupied Areas in North China” formulated on September 15, 1936, which was disclosed by the Chinese garrison headquarters stationed in recent years. In the light of the evolution of Japan’s North China Policy, The historic background and historical value of the Kuomintang-Manchurian monarchy, and compares it with the “Manchurian-occupied territories program” formulated by the Kwantung Army on the eve of the September 18th Incident. According to the plan of the Chinese army stationed in Tunjun, the author further demonstrates the inevitability of the Japanese invasion of Lugouqiao Incident.