论文部分内容阅读
基于MASNUM海浪数值预报系统的全球10 a后报数据库资料,分析了北印度洋区域波浪分布特征。由于该地区受季风控制显著,夏季波浪大于冬季;在空间分布上,西部比东部风大、浪大,在亚丁湾、索马里外海波浪最大。基于Janson-1卫星高度计有效波高观测资料,对MASNUM海浪预报系统的预报性能进行了检验,检验结果表明,预报波高均方根误差在0.5 m左右,短期的24 h预报效果好于48 h和72 h,冬季好于夏季。另外,对预报误差进行了相应的概率分布分析。
Based on the global 10 a-late database of MASNUM ocean wave forecast system, the wave distribution in the North Indian Ocean is analyzed. Due to the significant monsoon control in the area, the summer wave is larger than that in winter. In terms of spatial distribution, the western part is larger and heavier than the eastern part, with the largest waves in the Gulf of Aden and Somalia. Based on the observation data of the effective wave height of the Janson-1 satellite altimeter, the forecast performance of the MASNUM wave forecast system was tested. The test results showed that the root mean square error of the wave height of the forecast was about 0.5 m, the short-term prediction effect of 24 h was better than that of 48 h and 72 h, winter is better than summer. In addition, the corresponding probability distribution of forecast error is analyzed.