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针对燃气管道第三方破坏事故复杂的特点,基于层次分析和模糊数学的理论,计算燃气管道第三方破坏风险失效的可能性。全面识别城镇燃气管道第三方破坏事故的危害因素,构建包含56个基本事件的燃气管道第三方破坏故障树。利用模糊集合隶属函数,计算燃气管道发生第三方破坏事故基本事件的模糊概率。利用改进的层次分析法,得出各专家权重并修正各专家的评估意见,计算管道第三方破坏失效的可能性。以某大型省会城市燃气管道为例进行验证分析,证明该方法的风险评价结果与实际情况相符,可为燃气公司安全风险防控提供依据。
Aiming at the complicated characteristics of the third-party gas pipeline accident, based on the theory of AHP and fuzzy mathematics, the possibility of third-party failure risk of gas pipeline is calculated. This paper comprehensively identifies the hazard factors of the third-party destruction of gas pipeline in urban area and constructs a third-party damage fault tree of gas pipeline with 56 basic events. Using the fuzzy set membership function, the fuzzy probability of the basic event of the third-party damage accident occurred in the gas pipeline is calculated. Using the improved analytic hierarchy process, we draw the weight of each expert and amend the assessment opinions of experts to calculate the possibility of failure of third-party pipelines. The case of a large provincial capitals gas pipeline is taken as an example to verify the analysis, which proves that the risk evaluation result of this method is in line with the actual situation, which can provide the basis for the prevention and control of gas companies’ safety risk.