论文部分内容阅读
世界头号石油生产国苏联目前正陷于产量下降的困境之中。由于苏联的绝对油产量很大,所以哪怕它的减产幅度很小,都会在国际市场引起相应的震动。此前苏联已显示出减少对东欧的石油供应的迹象,如付诸实施则将迫使东欧国家在欧佩克进口石油,这势必会打破原先的供需平衡,导致油价的动荡。据苏联国家统计局发布的数据表明,去年苏联的油产量比前年减少2.7％,而行家们估计的下降幅度超过4％,降至日产量1200万桶上下的水平。面对西方的石油出口却减少了20％(日出口量减少约40万桶)。据美国中央情报局统计,1988年苏联的日出口油量为410万桶稍多,其中销往西方国家的为219万桶,在平均日需求量达5000万桶的西方国家的需求中所占的比重并不大。但由于苏联的石油出口集中销往欧洲,所以苏联的供油能力不可能不对欧洲石油市场产生相当的心理影响。
The world’s number one oil-producing nation, the Soviet Union, is now in a dilemma of declining output. Because of the absolute oil output of the Soviet Union, even if its rate of decrease is small, it will cause a corresponding shock in the international market. After the Soviet Union showed signs of reducing its oil supply to Eastern Europe, if implemented, it would force Eastern European countries to import oil at OPEC, which would inevitably break the original balance of supply and demand and lead to turmoil in oil prices. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Soviet Union, the oil output of the Soviet Union last year dropped by 2.7% over the previous year, while the estimates by experts dropped by more than 4% to a level of 12 million barrels per day. Oil exports to the West have been reduced by 20% (a decrease of about 400,000 barrels per day). According to the CIA statistics, in 1988, the Soviet Union’s daily oil export volume was slightly over 4.1 million barrels, of which 2.19 million barrels were sold to western countries and accounted for the demand of western countries with an average daily demand of 50 million barrels The proportion is not large. However, as the Soviet Union’s oil exports are concentrated in Europe, it is impossible for the Soviet Union’s oil supply capacity not to have a considerable psychological impact on the European oil market.