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通过研究2013年上半年的大庆原油价格,结合时间序列分析的方法,对原油价格数据进行简单整理,从而更容易定性分析原油价格随时间发展的规律。利用采集的数据进行回归分析,结合统计检验,得出最适合当前大庆原油价格发展的数学模型。在建立的非线性模型上,结合原始数据使用统计建模方法对模型优化。最后在满足各项假设检验的条件下,对未来大庆原油的价格进行预测,并给出合理化的建议。
By studying the price of crude oil in Daqing in the first half of 2013 and combining with the time series analysis method, crude oil price data can be simply collated to make it easier to qualitatively analyze the law of the development of crude oil price over time. Using the collected data for regression analysis, combined with statistical tests, come to the most suitable for the current Daqing crude oil price development mathematical model. On the established nonlinear model, the model is optimized by using statistical modeling method combined with the original data. Finally, under the premise of meeting the hypothesis tests, the price of Daqing crude oil in the future is predicted and reasonable suggestions are given.