论文部分内容阅读
将预售期内旅客的订票行为视为Poisson过程,在对未来预售期内旅客订票数量预测的基础上,建立考虑旅客订票随机性的航空机票动态超售模型;推导了模型中未来预售期内旅客订票数量的分布律,根据实际操作中航空公司对超售上限限制的特点,给出了旅客No-Show和DB损失期望的计算公式;结合枚举法实现了对超售模型的求解,并根据模型特点提出了提高效率的求解策略;通过算例分析及数值仿真,证明了超售模型的合理性,验证了动态超售模型的有效性和可操作性,同时证明模型具有在不同的订票强度下,不断修正参数使得总收益增加的特点,仿真结果也反映出较低的DB风险水平,为航空公司机票预售策略的制定提供一定参考及实用价值.
In the pre-sale period, the booking behavior of passengers is regarded as the Poisson process. Based on the prediction of the passenger booking quantity in the future pre-sale period, a dynamic overbooking model of airline tickets considering the randomness of passenger booking is established. According to the fact that the airlines limit the overbooking capitals in the actual operation, the calculation formula of passenger’s No-Show and DB loss expectation is given. By combining the enumeration method, The model of the sales model is proposed and a solution strategy to improve the efficiency is proposed according to the characteristics of the model. The rationality of the overbooking model is proved by the example analysis and the numerical simulation, and the validity and maneuverability of the dynamic overbooking model are verified. The model has the characteristics of constantly modifying the parameters and increasing the total revenue under different ticket booking intensity. The simulation results also reflect the low DB risk level, which provides some reference and practical value for the airline ticket pre-sale strategy.