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能源是国民经济发展的物质基础,现代社会发展对能源消费依赖程度日益提高。能源消费系统作为复杂系统,与经济、人口、环境等外在因素紧密相连,认识和把握能源消费规律及其变化趋势成为提高能源安全的基本前提和必要条件。本文选取能源大省山西作为研究对象。山西省既是能源生产大省,也是能源消费大省,高耗能的产业结构、初级能源为主的品种构成,导致山西的经济发展是以消耗大量的能源为代价的。论文运用系统工程的思想,对山西省能源消费系统及其相关子系统进行分析,构建系统动力学模型,采用5种不同发展模式分别对模型中节能技术、洗煤率、SO2排放系数等关键因子进行调控,实现对2010年-2020年间GDP增长率、单位GDP能耗和SO2排放总量的中长期预测。对比5种发展模式的预测结果及变化趋势,并结合山西省的实际情况,认为模式5能够较好实现能源消费与经济增长协调发展,是相对最优调控方案。该方案给出的政策建议包括:加强现有装备技术改造,进一步关停落后产能,加强资源循环利用,削减污染物前端排放,加快发展太阳能、沼气等新能源等。
Energy is the material basis for the development of the national economy. The development of modern society is increasingly dependent on energy consumption. As a complex system, energy consumption system is closely linked with external factors such as economy, population and environment. Understanding and grasping the law of energy consumption and its changing trend have become the basic prerequisites and necessary conditions for improving energy security. In this paper, Shanxi, a major energy source, is selected as the research object. Shanxi is not only a big province for energy production, but also a major energy consumption province, a highly energy-consuming industrial structure and a primary energy-based breed. As a result, Shanxi’s economic development is at the expense of consuming a large amount of energy. Based on the idea of system engineering, this paper analyzes the energy consumption system of Shanxi Province and its related subsystems, builds the system dynamics model, and uses five different development modes to conduct the key factors such as energy-saving technology, coal washing rate and SO2 emission coefficient in the model Control, to achieve the 2010-2020 GDP growth rate, energy consumption per unit of GDP and total SO2 emissions in the long-term forecasts. By comparing the forecast results of five kinds of development modes and their changing trends and considering the actual conditions in Shanxi Province, it is considered that Mode 5 can achieve the coordinated development of energy consumption and economic growth and is the relatively optimal regulation and control plan. The policy recommendations given in the plan include: strengthening the transformation of existing equipment and technologies, further shutting down backward production capacity, enhancing recycling of resources, reducing emission of pollutants and accelerating the development of new energy such as solar energy and biogas.