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三季度数据引人注意,原因在于这会决定全年经济增速,并影响四季度宏观经济决策。虽然GDP增速续创新低,但降幅有限,料政府在四季度不会出台全面降准或降息政策,借以保持此前政策连续性,但下一年,调控政策一定是重打锣鼓另开张。三季度哪些数据减弱,与二季度简单对比即可得知,但数据变化背后隐含的逻辑,更能说明经济增长的未来趋势。最明显的数据变化是GDP增速下降,由二季度的7.4%,下
Third-quarter data draws attention, because it will determine the annual economic growth, and affect the fourth quarter macroeconomic policy-making. Although the GDP growth rate hit a record low, the decline is limited. It is expected that the government will not issue a comprehensive RRR cut or interest rate cut in the fourth quarter in order to maintain the continuity of previous policies. However, next year, the regulatory policies must be re-opened for gongs and drums. What data will be weakened in the third quarter will be compared with a simple comparison in the second quarter. However, the logic behind the changes in the data can better illustrate the future trend of economic growth. The most obvious change is the decline in GDP growth, from 7.4% in the second quarter