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本文利用我国2006-2011年的月度面板数据模型考察了我国股票收益的居民消费效应,发现我国股票收益和居民消费之间互为因果关系,且存在着较弱的正效应。进一步来看,居民股票收益的增加有利于增加其对基本生活和耐用消费品的消费,对股市的投资与对房地产的投资具有替代效应,表明现阶段我国居民的消费结构为注重改善基本生活消费和加大耐用消费品消费并存的双重特点。另外,股票收益与消费的正相关关系表明了股市的长期低迷甚至出现严重的负泡沫现象对居民的消费有很大的抑制作用。
In this paper, we use the monthly panel data model of China from 2006 to 2011 to examine the resident consumption effect of the stock returns in China. It is found that there is a causal relationship between the return of stocks and the consumption of residents in China, and there is a weak positive effect. Further, the increase of resident stock returns helps to increase their consumption of basic life and consumer durables. The investment in the stock market and the investment in real estate have a substitution effect, indicating that the consumption structure of residents in our country at this stage is to focus on improving basic living expenses and Increase the dual characteristics of coexistence of consumer durables. In addition, the positive correlation between stock returns and consumption shows that the stock market’s long-term downturn and even a serious negative bubble have a great inhibitory effect on the consumption of residents.