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今年第20期《导报》刊发了我的短文——“过度炒作贻害长远”。于后复读,觉得话没说透、有缺陷。比如,我质疑“持有房地产都能增值吗?”其理据是香港及东亚一带近年楼价暴跌的事实。此种逻辑推演的问题在:一方面,没能给出对整体趋势的描述,即城市化进程中生成的聚集效应,从整体上说,无疑会使城市土地增值并推高物业价格,从而使其具有保值、增值功用;另方面,在特定历史背景(或经济转型或泡沫破裂)下的楼价暴跌,不能作为一种市场常态来看待,也不宜由此引申出有关房地产不能保值、增值的一般性结论。
The 20th issue of this year, “Herald” published my essay - “excessive speculation harms long-term.” After repeated reading, I feel that I did not say it thoroughly, there are flaws. For example, I question the value of holding real estate? The justification is the fact that real estate prices in Hong Kong and East Asia have plunged in recent years. On the one hand, this kind of logical deduction fails to give a description of the overall trend, that is, the aggregate effect generated in the process of urbanization. As a whole, it undoubtedly adds value to urban land and raises property prices, so that On the other hand, property price plunge under certain historical background (or economic restructuring or bubble burst) can not be treated as a normal market, nor should it be derived from this that real estate can not be preserved or added value General conclusion