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分析钦江流域暴雨和洪水特征，以及短历时暴雨、场次流域平均雨量与钦州洪峰水位的关系。对时段雨量和场次雨量进行分析筛选，其中以６ｈ最大时段暴雨量与洪峰水位的关系最优；场次雨量与峰现时间的关系较为密切。编制了以 ６ ｈ流域平均最大雨量预报钦州洪峰水位的简易预报模式，以及用场次流域平均雨量预报洪峰峰现时问的简易预报模式，并对该预报模式进行评价，为应用计算机预报钦州洪峰水位及峰现时间提供了一定的依据。
The characteristics of heavy rains and floods in Qinjiang River Basin were analyzed, as well as the relationship between the short-term heavy rain and the average rainfall in the watershed and the peak flood level in Qinzhou. The time series of rainfall and episodic rainfall were analyzed and screened, among which the relationship between stormwater level and flood peak level was the best at 6h, and the correlation between rainfall and peak time was close. A simple forecast model of forecasting flood level in Qinzhou Basin based on the average maximum rainfall in 6 hours and a simple forecast mode of forecasting current flood peak demand in Qinhuashan Basin were prepared and the forecast mode was evaluated. Peak now provides some basis for the time.