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结合中国实际,引入土地供给和制度政策变量修正传统的生命周期模型,并构建误差修正模型,选取北京市2000—2007年的季度数据实证分析住房价格波动的决定因素,并探讨制度变迁和政府调控对房价波动的影响。分析表明:(1)长期来看,住房价格与经济基本面变量之间有稳定的均衡关系;土地供给和金融制度也对长期房价走势有显著影响。(2)短期来看,住房价格的波动取决于经济基本面以及住房市场的内在调节能力;土地供给对房价波动具有显著影响,而住房资本使用成本、收入和贷款等需求面因素对房价波动的影响更大;2005年以来北京市住房价格向均衡水平的调整速度明显降低,外部冲击将造成实际价格对均衡水平的持久偏离。
According to the actual conditions of China, this paper introduces the model of land supply and system policy to revise the traditional life cycle model and constructs the error correction model. The empirical analysis of the determinants of housing price volatility in Beijing from 2000 to 2007 and the changes of government regulation The impact of price fluctuations. The analysis shows that: (1) In the long run, there is a stable and balanced relationship between housing prices and economic fundamentals; land supply and financial system also have a significant impact on long-term housing prices. (2) In the short run, the fluctuation of housing prices depends on the economic fundamentals and the inherent regulation ability of the housing market. The supply of land has a significant impact on the fluctuation of house prices. However, the demand-side factors such as the cost of housing capital, income and loans, The impact will be even greater. Since 2005, the rate of adjustment of housing prices in Beijing to the level of equilibrium has been remarkably reduced. External shocks will result in the persistent deviation of real prices from the equilibrium level.