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[目的]分析象山半岛改水除氟30年氟中毒病区氟斑牙患病情况,并对未来5年患病趋势进行预测。[方法]收集1982—2012年象山半岛改水除氟资料,使用等级相关分析探索患病率与改水时间相关性,使用时间序列分析模型ARIMA对氟斑牙患病率进行建模并预测。[结果]改水前、改水10年后、20年后、30年后氟斑牙患病率分别为76.36%、46.20%、0.98%以及0.35%,等级相关分析显示随时间的延长,患病率逐年下降(rs=0.99,P<0.01);ARIMA模型结果预测未来5年氟斑牙患病率分别为0.29%、0.20%、0.15%、0.12%、以及0.10%。[结论]象山半岛氟斑牙患病率逐年降低,改水除氟措施有效。
[Objective] To analyze the prevalence of dental fluorosis in fluorosis area in Xiangshan peninsula in the past 30 years and to forecast the trend in the next 5 years. [Method] The data of water and fluoride removal in Xiangshan Peninsula from 1982 to 2012 were collected, and the correlation between prevalence and water changing time was explored using rank correlation analysis. The prevalence of dental fluorosis was modeled and predicted using time series analysis model ARIMA. [Results] The prevalence rates of dental fluorosis after 10 years and 20 years and 30 years after water diversion were 76.36%, 46.20%, 0.98% and 0.35% respectively. The correlation analysis showed that with the extension of time, The incidence of dental fluorosis decreased year by year (rs = 0.99, P <0.01). The ARIMA model predicts the prevalence of dental fluorosis in the next 5 years were 0.29%, 0.20%, 0.15%, 0.12% and 0.10% respectively. [Conclusion] The prevalence of dental fluorosis in Xiangshan Peninsula is decreasing year by year, and the water and fluoride removal measures are effective.