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近年来黄河下游连年断流 ,引起社会的极大关注。文中根据全国 1 60个基本气象测站近47a的月降水量资料 ,应用旋转主分量分析等统计分析方法 ,分析了黄河流域平均降水量的年际变化 ,比较了全国各区域降水量异常及其累积程度 ,还与历史上著名的大旱灾荒和黄河下游断流事件作了对比分析。结果表明 ,近 2 0 a来 ,黄河流域尤其黄河下游山东省及其附近地区 ,遭遇到数百年一遇的气候上连续干旱阶段 ,近 1 0 a来累计少降的雨水总量 ,相当于黄河 4 a的径流量。黄河下游近 2 0 a里集中发生了 1 5 a明显的干旱年份 ,其中 5 a大旱 ,1 0 a干旱。其干旱的累积程度不仅是全国最严重的地区 ,而且超过了历史上著名的“崇贞大旱”(1 640年 )和 1 372年的大旱及黄河下游断流事件
In recent years, the downstream of the Yellow River has been deteriorating year after year, causing great concern in the society. Based on the monthly precipitation data of nearly 60 years at 160 basic meteorological stations in China, the author analyzed the interannual variation of average precipitation in the Yellow River basin by using the principal component analysis of rotation and other statistical methods, and compared the anomalies of precipitation in various regions of the country The degree of accumulation, but also with the history of the famine drought and the Yellow River downstream cutoff made a comparative analysis. The results show that in the past 20 years, the Yellow River Basin, especially the lower reaches of the Yellow River in Shandong Province and its vicinity, encountered hundreds of years of once-successive climatic drought period, the cumulative rainfall in the past 10 years, equivalent to Yellow River 4 a runoff. In the recent 20 years in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, 15 clear years of drought occurred, of which 5 a were severe and 10 a were concentrated. The cumulative extent of its drought is not only the most serious area in the country, but also surpasses the historic “Chongzhen Severe Drought” (1 640 years) and the drought in 1932 and the interruption of the lower Yellow River