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低成本是石油企业追求的目标,操作成本是油气生产项目的重要组成部分,控制与预测操作成本对成本控制预算管理具有重要意义。结合某油田操作成本的实际情况,选择该油田2013年和2014年的操作成本数据,利用统计学指数分析的有关理论,进行静态和动态两方面的分析评价,找出该油田需要控制成本的项目为动力费、人员费、井下作业费、厂矿管理费、其他直接费、燃料费、维护及修理费、运输费、测井试井费。运用回归分析方法,建立了原油操作成本与原油产量之间的关系,预测2015年的操作成本为27美元/bbl。运用灰色分析方法,建立了灰色原油操作成本预测模型,预测2015年的操作成本为30美元/bbl,2015年实际操作成本为28美元/bbl,两种方法的平均值为28.5美元/bbl,误差很小,在实践中可利用两种方法的平均值作为下一年的操作成本预测值。
Low cost is the goal pursued by oil companies. Operation costs are an important part of oil and gas production projects. Controlling and predicting operating costs is of great importance to cost control budget management. Based on the actual operation cost of a certain oilfield, the operating cost data of the oilfield in 2013 and 2014 are selected. Based on the relevant theory of statistical index analysis, the static and dynamic analysis and evaluation are conducted to find out the cost control items of the oilfield For the power costs, staff costs, downhole operating costs, factory management fees, other direct costs, fuel costs, maintenance and repair costs, transportation costs, logging well testing costs. Using regression analysis, the relationship between operating costs of crude oil and crude oil production was established. The operating cost for 2015 is estimated to be US $ 27 / bbl. By using gray analysis method, the operating cost forecasting model for gray crude oil is established. The operating cost in 2015 is estimated to be US $ 30 / bbl. The actual operating cost in 2015 is US $ 28 / bbl. The average of the two methods is US $ 28.5 / bbl. The error Small, in practice, the average of the two methods can be used as a forecast for operating costs for the next year.