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协整理论的提出为2个或多个非平稳变量间寻找均衡关系及在此基础上建立误差修正模型奠定了理论基础。在实际中,多数经济时间序列都是非平稳的,电力需求的波动亦然。该文采用协整与误差修正模型技术研究了电力需求的决定因素,建立了电力需求函数,通过实例检验了电力需求与国内生产总值、全国人口数量之间的长期均衡关系及短期波动关系。
The cointegration theory has laid a theoretical foundation for finding a balanced relationship between two or more nonstationary variables and establishing an error correction model based on this. In practice, the majority of economic time series are non-stationary, and the demand for electricity is subject to fluctuations. In this paper, the co-integration and error correction model techniques are used to study the determinants of electricity demand, and the power demand function is established. The long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations between electricity demand and GDP and the national population are verified through examples.