核威慑降低了战争的风险,具有战略稳定作用。威慑等传统战略手段发挥作用的前提是意图传递机制在国家间互动中维持有效。由于网络空间具备特殊的组成方式和行为逻辑,像核威慑那样的传统战略威慑方式在网络空间中所起到的系统稳定作用甚微。在互联网时代,国家做出战略决策需要面对海量、无序和非结构性的数据,传统的承诺、威慑、进攻与防御等主要的意图传递机制都因受到网络信息传输特性的影响而失效。当互动双方难以有效传递彼此意图,也很难准确判断对方意图时,出于自保目的的国家更偏好于选择“即时打击”的反应策略,甚至在无法准确判断攻击发起方的状况下就进行报复。误判发生的可能性骤然上升,网络空间呈现出“战略不稳定性”。为了在网络空间避免过度依赖直观印象导致战略误判、冲突升级的情况发生,国家在未来战略博弈中取得优势的关键在于能够通过迅速分析大数据,定位战略对手、辨别对手意图、理解对手行为模式,从而减少误判,提高决策质量。在网络传播情境下分析战略互动逻辑,具有重大的理论价值和现实意义。 Nuclear deterrence reduces the risk of war and has a strategic stabilizing effect. The precondition for traditional strategic tools such as deterrence to function is that intent-delivery mechanisms remain effective in the interaction between countries. Due to the special composition and behavior logic of cyberspace, the traditional system of deterrence such as nuclear deterrence plays a very small role in the stability of cyberspace. In the Internet age, the country needs to face massive, disordered and unstructured data to make strategic decisions. The traditional mechanism of intent delivery, such as traditional commitment, deterrence, offensive and defensive, is invalidated by the characteristics of network information transmission. When it is difficult for the two parties to effectively communicate each other’s intention and it is difficult to accurately judge each other’s intention, the countries that are for self-preservation are more inclined to choose the response strategy of “instant attack” and even if they can not accurately judge the attack initiator Retaliation. The possibility of miscarriage of justice suddenly increased, cyberspace showed “strategic instability ”. In order to avoid over-reliance on visual impression in cyberspace, strategic misjudgment and conflict escalation occur. The key for the country to gain the advantage in the future strategic game lies in being able to understand the opponent’s behavior pattern by rapidly analyzing big data, positioning the strategic opponent, identifying the opponent’s intention, , Thus reducing misjudgment and improving decision-making quality. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to analyze the logic of strategic interaction under the circumstance of internet communication.