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文章将二次城市化水平定义为城镇户籍人口占城镇总人口的比重,构建了一个包含城市化、二次城市化和城市土地开发的中央计划者模型,在利用1985-2008年数据对模型参数进行估计的基础上,模拟分析了城市化对经济增长的影响。结果发现,城市化水平的提高对经济增长有积极作用;当人口在城市落户的成本较高时,提高二次城市化水平和城市用地相对面积会显著降低经济增长率;当落户成本较低时,上述负面影响并不明显。在进一步推进城市化的同时,应保持城乡用地的动态平衡,根据落户成本施行差别化的户籍开放和土地开发政策,让中小城市和小城镇成为吸纳人口进城落户的主要场所,这为“十二五”规划建议中有关城镇化的内容提供了理论依据。
The paper defines the secondary urbanization as the proportion of urban hukou population in the total urban population, constructs a central planner model that includes urbanization, secondary urbanization and urban land development. Using the data of 1985-2008 to model parameters Based on the estimation, the impact of urbanization on economic growth is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the improvement of urbanization level has a positive effect on economic growth. When the population settling in cities is higher, increasing the secondary urbanization level and the relative area of urban land use will significantly reduce the economic growth rate. When the settlement cost is low , The above negative impact is not obvious. While further promoting urbanization, we should maintain the dynamic balance between urban and rural land use and implement differentiated household registration and land development policies in accordance with the settlement cost so that small and medium-sized cities and small towns become the main sites for attracting population to settle in cities. Twelfth Five-Year "planning proposals on the content of urbanization provides a theoretical basis.