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最近华尔街的很多投资银行对中国经济的前景很不看好。以美国经济学家克鲁格曼和鲁比尼为代表的很多著名经济学家也在唱衰中国,认为中国经济在两三年的时间里就会出现很大的问题。到底中国经济还能再增长多久?作者通过“收敛假说”预测:到2020年中国经济有望成为世界最大经济体,此后应该还有不少于10年的时间完成经济结构、就业结构的转变和现代化,从而维持比较高的增长率。
Many recent Wall Street investment banks are not optimistic about China’s economy. Many famous economists represented by U.S. economists Krugman and Rubini are also singing bad news about China. They think that there will be a big problem in China’s economy in two to three years. In the end, how long can China’s economy continue to grow? The author predicts through “convergence hypothesis” that by 2020 China’s economy is expected to become the largest economy in the world and there should be no less than 10 years to complete the economic structure and employment structure transformation And modernization, so as to maintain a relatively high growth rate.